MPPR 2026

Group modelling projects

During Part II (16–18 September), teams work on a mentored capstone. The flagship brief is Ebola in the DRC — calibration, scenarios, and communication of modelling results.

Flagship project

Capstone · Part II Presentations · Fri 18 Sep 2026

Ebola outbreak modelling in the DRC

A multidisciplinary brief on predicting localized transmission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Teams integrate epidemiological data with contextual mapping to refine models and explore how faster, better-informed modelling can shorten response lag in emerging hotspots. Guest seminars on 15 September (COVID-19 South Africa; Ebola response decision-making) frame the applied work.

Expected deliverables

  • Calibrated transmission scenarios for the study setting
  • Clear maps / figures that communicate risk and uncertainty
  • A short set of response-oriented recommendations
  • Team presentation on Friday 18 September 2026

Methods you will use

  • Model calibration and validation in R
  • Scenario analysis (control & counterfactuals)
  • Uncertainty and sensitivity at a practical level
  • Science & policy communication of model outputs
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How the project week runs

Part II builds the methods first; the final days concentrate on applying them to your team brief.

  1. Wed 16 Sep

    Kickoff & briefs

    Overview of last year’s Mpox projects, then Ebola in the DRC launch — teams form and receive topic allocations.

  2. Thu 17 Sep

    Mentored modelling

    Full project day — calibrate, explore scenarios, and iterate with facilitators.

  3. Fri 18 Sep

    Present & close

    Morning project polish, afternoon team presentations and course evaluation, then the certificate award ceremony and networking dinner.

Related focus areas for 2026

Every team works from the flagship Ebola brief. These themes often shape how groups frame scenarios, extensions, and communication — supporting files are on Resources; team collaboration continues in the online course.

Seminars

Guest case studies

Learn from COVID-19 scenario modelling in South Africa and Ebola outbreak response decision-making in the DRC before project work begins.

Tue 15 Sep guest seminars

Track focus

Scenarios & health economics

Connect model outputs to intervention choices and simple economic endpoints introduced mid-Part II.

Anchored on Days 6–7 methods

Communication

Science & policy storytelling

Turn maps, trajectories, and uncertainty into a clear briefing for a non-modelling audience.

Prepares Friday presentations